Wire Report

Justin Logan -Associate Director of Foreign Policy Studies, The CATO Institute

Justin Logan is associate director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international relations theory, and American foreign policy. His current research focuses on the formation of U.S. grand strategy under unipolarity; the growing role of counterinsurgency (COIN) and nation building in U.S. foreign policy; and the intellectual lineage of COIN. He has authored numerous policy studies and articles on topics including international relations theory, U.S. China policy, U.S. Russia policy, stabilization and reconstruction operations, and the policy approaches to a nuclear Iran. His articles have appeared in the Harvard International Review, The National Interest, Orbis, the Foreign Service Journal, The American Conservative, Reason, The American Prospect, National Review Online, the Chicago Sun-Times and other publications. He has made regular appearances on a variety of broadcast media including the BBC, MSNBC, Fox News, Voice of America, and others. Logan holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University. He lives in Washington, DC.

(WIRE/CATO) – Recent war games and public statements from U.S. military commanders are reinforcing what should have been clear some time ago: A U.S. or Israeli attack against Iran would have significant but unpredictable consequences.

American and Israeli intelligence on the Iranian nuclear program is of uneven quality, but excellent, near-perfect intelligence would be required to make any strike successful. There is the real possibility that an attack would set back Iran’s progress by only a few years, while rallying Iranian citizens around the regime they seem to be increasingly challenging at present. The Iranians have a host of asymmetric capabilities, some of which they would likely use to respond to a foreign attack. This could complicate the American withdrawal from Iraq and ongoing operations in Afghanistan, and potentially cost American and Israeli (to say nothing of Iranian) lives. Most importantly, there is the prospect of an escalation spiral that could lead to a full-blown war and possibly regime change in Iran followed by chaos, potentially across the region.

Beyond immediate policy questions, though, there are general lessons for U.S. foreign policy: Military violence is a tool of limited utility. American threats can frighten weaker countries, encouraging them to seek nuclear deterrents. Willful diplomatic isolation is counterproductive. Finally, inserting ourselves as the balancer-of-first-resort in every region of the world is a costly and unnecessary strategy that discards America’s natural strategic advantages and plays to our weaknesses. The sooner these lessons are digested by the U.S. foreign policy elite, the better.

The Smoking Argus

Editor’s Note: No official Statement is available from Senator John McCain’s office.

Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona compares the struggle for American Independence to the ongoing protests in Iran. He attempts to oversimplify opposition by stating that those seeking to link the C.I.A. to the current Green Revolution based on the C.I.A.’s 1953 overthrow of then Iranian Prime Minister Mossadeq are both cynical and on the wrong side of history. Finally, Senator McCain admonishes the Iranian regime for conducting brutal torture and spreading fear of a feigned foreign enemy as a means to justify a loss of liberty domestically.

Source(s): Senator John McCain’s Official YouTube Channel

Jeff Lewis

One of the great lines from Saturday Night Live was delivered many years ago by Martin Short’s brilliant comedic character, “Ed Grimley”, when he described a situation as,” Doomed as doomed can be!” That summarizes my prognosis on the theocratic regime that has ruled Iran since 1979. With events of this past week, the disciples of the world’s first cyber revolution have passed the point of no return.

WARNING: Graphic Video

The graphic scene of the young woman, Neda, bleeding to death from a fatal gunshot on the streets of Tehran has become the symbol of the upheaval caused by the controversy surrounding the recent national election. Civilian control apparatus is in high gear as the ruling clerics attempt to quell the insurrection of hundreds of thousands of protesters who have taken to the streets throughout the country. Wounded demonstrators are being beaten savagely, pulled out of their houses at night, and even arrested at hospitals. Some families trying to reclaim the dead bodies of murdered relatives are being charged a fee for the bullets expended by security forces that remain logged within the victim’s corpse.

The Iranian authorities are taking every step possible in interfering with electronic transmissions from all sources that are broadcasting messages to the world about the emerging atrocities of governmental suppression of the dissenting demonstrators. The Guardian Council issued a statement that there were no fraudulent voting incidents and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, said all those people who continued to demonstrate would be dealt with as traitors.

Republican Senators John McCain (AZ) and Lindsey Graham (SC) are criticizing Obama’s tepid response as a failure to lead on an issue that should require him to be aggressive in his denunciation of Iran’s rulers. Other Republican members of Congress are carping at Obama about not leading the free world’s outrage over the unfolding events in Iran, notably Mike Pence (R-IN). Representative Pence compared President Obama’s reticence to Ronald Reagan’s bold declaration to Gorbachev regarding tearing down the Berlin Wall, in 1987. Not all Republicans are as quick to demagogue the issue, however. Indiana Senator, Richard Lugar, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, feels Obama is wise to keep his cool, for now, as events continue to unfold. Pat Buchanan, MSNBC’s right wing firebrand, praised Obama’s stance as did Conservative columnist George Will on last Sunday’s ABC regular broadcast. Mr. Will even criticized Obama’s detractors by name.

MSNBC, CNN, and all the major old-media networks, have interviewed dozens of guests including Iranian expatriates, college faculty, and American citizens with family still living in Iran. The old-media has called for America to be supportive of the demonstrators, but not to overplay their hand and provide Ahmadinejad with the excuse to castigate the U.S. as “The Great Satan” that is fueling the discord in their country, as has been done since the 1979 revolution. In his Cairo speech, President Obama admitted the CIA’s role in deposing a popularly elected government in Iran in 1953. Iranians have also not forgotten that the U.S. supported their archenemy, Saddam Hussein, in their brutal war with Iraq in 1982 where over a million Iranians were casualties.

Most of Obama’s critics do not take into account the history of unpopular U.S. involvement in Iran over the last sixty-years. The short sightedness of that view was articulated last Thursday during an interview on MSNBC’s, “Hardball”, with host Chris Matthews and Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss (GA). Senator Chambliss said he thought that America’s previous transgressions against Iran happened long enough ago that they were largely forgotten by the Iranians of today. Matthews missed an opportunity for a great follow up question to Chambliss when he failed to ask the Georgia Senator, “When did Georgians stop remembering General Sherman?”

For his part, President Obama has steadily ramped up his criticism of Iran’s ruling theocracy, but in his news this past Tuesday, he allowed that events are continuing to unfold. However, the days of government by theocracy in Iran are numbered. This youthful generation in Iran, those 30 and under, which amounts to over sixty percent of the country’s total population, are the products of the emerging technology that is changing how the world interacts. It will take several months to make changes in Iran sufficient to quell this culture of the future, but one thing is for certain, history does not have a reverse gear.

China is next.

Jeff Lewis

I have been observing the Iranian election and subsequent eruption of events occurring there for the past week. Several astonishing things are happening on the world stage, currently centered in Tehran, the most significant of which is the world’s first, “Cyber Revolution”, a term I first saw coined on CNN’s coverage. At the initial outbreak of massive voter dissent on Sunday, the ruling theocracy of Iran wasted no time in shutting down all of the traditional media outlets, rounded up all the foreign press and media agents, unplugged and jammed as many venues to cyberspace as they could, but the world’s front row seat is still being viewed on every TV screen and monitor on the planet. The mullahs are not up to speed with the technology network that has proliferated throughout the globe and are learning that “mass media control” is a thing of the past.

Huge crowds assemble on short notice throughout Tehran and remain several steps ahead of Iran’s considerable domestic security apparatus. The demonstrators of Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989 did not have the technical high ground that their protesting counter parts have in Tehran. It remains to be seen, as of this writing, if Iranian security legions can corral and subdue the hundreds of thousands who are outraged at the voting sham that recently occurred in their country.

The ruling theocracy of Iran made a serious miscalculation in rigging this election. They obviously determined all they needed to do was give the appearance of electoral transparency. They permitted large partisan public candidate rallies, accompanied by a nationally televised debate to the voters and world stage. They also encouraged a large Election Day turnout, and then announce their predetermined choice of the victor in the election and hoped everybody would return to their own affairs and daily business. They are now reaping the whirlwind of an entire culture, intoxicated with the notion that their vote actually meant something.

How utterly foolish this theocratic regime has been. They announced, prior to Election Day in anticipation of a huge voter turnout, that they had 55 million paper ballots printed. The reported turnout was around 35 million with Ahmadinejad garnering 22 million and his nearest opponent, Mir-Hossein Moussavi, with 13 million. These results were announced within three hours of the polls closing, according to Richard Engle, veteran Middle East reporter for NBC. Three hours to tabulate 35 million paper ballot votes is preposterous by any previous standard known to mankind! What idiots these rulers must think of the people.

What kind of precedent did they think they were setting for a country of 78 million people, two thirds of whom are under 30 years old and were not alive when the last revolution took place 30 years previously? This youthful population segment is well educated and acculturated to Western customs and politics, as a result of their interaction via cyberspace since they began substantive cognition. In their reporting of election results they said that Ahmadinejad defeated Moussavi by almost two to one in his hometown, which would be like reporting McCain defeated Obama in Chicago by that margin.

For their part, Republicans have wasted no time in advocating a “get tough” approach to Iran. An approach that has been bereft of any positive results with Iran, to date, along with other disastrous Middle East policy initiatives of theirs. Instead, President Obama has adopted a posture of keeping his powder dry until the smoke clears; at least. Today, the Guardian Council of Iran has announced it will review allegations of any voting infractions and irregularities. My bet is they may determine the vote margin was not as great as first reported, but there will be no new election or recounts that would jeopardize their predetermined choice of the winner.

The situation in Iran represents the first great clash of a pre-cyberspace authoritarian leadership style and the youthful disciples of emerging technology’s informational applications to international politics and governance. The prophetic theme in Marshall McLuhan’s, “Medium Is the Massage”, of 1967, where he predicted the inexorable emergence of the, “Global Village,” is manifest in this current struggle. Stay tuned.

Allison Bricker

TEHRAN, IRAN – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered the Guardian Council to take up the an investigation of alleged fraud over Iran’s tumultuous election, according to Iran’s state television network. In a response to opposition candidate’s letter to the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replied:

“You are different from those people (rioter protesters on the streets) and you are advised to keep manners and calmness,”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iranian Supreme Leader

Opposition candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi is now reporting that he is currently under house arrest as protests continue to swell across the nation. Police and rioters continue to clash regardless of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory speech on Sunday. Reports are also circulating that various news reporters have been arrested, including those from NBC and the BBC. At the time of publiction, details are spotty and difficult to confirm. The Smoking Argus Daily will continue to provide updates to this post upon further developments.

—END REPORT—

Source(s): ¹NBC “The Today Show” live report, June 15th, 2009 •

Allison Bricker

CAIRO, EGYPT -  In his speech today, President Obama acknowledged and apologized for the United States’ role in the 1953 CIA/British backed overthrow of the democratically elected Iranian government. This marks the first time in history that a United States President has ever publicly spoken about U.S. involvement of the 1953 coup. The operation codenamed, Operation Ajax, was a classified CIA mission headed up by Kermit Roosevelt, grandson of former President Theodore Roosevelt tasked with carrying out  a covert regime change of then Prime Minister Mossaddeq’s government. The overthrow came shortly after he [Mossaddeq] nationalized Iranian oil fields which had formerly been under the control of British Petroleum. Operation Ajax would be the first among several successful CIA backed coup d’états.

Former Presidential Candidate and Texas Congressman Ron Paul, spoke to this type of aggressive foreign policy during the 2008 Republican Presidential Primaries. In a now infamous exchange between Dr. Paul and former New York Mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, Dr. Paul educated Mayor Giuliani on the 9/11 Commission report’s sentiments and the CIA definition of the word ‘blowback’ as consequences to the continued practice of  suc imperial interventionism.

Source(s): Breitbart “Obama admits US involvement in Iran coup in 1953″ •  CIA.gov “All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror”